By Amelia Colón, 10th grade.

The first European modern lotteries have been around since the 15th century, however, the practice of determining the distribution of property by lot is traceable to ancient times. The lottery’s methods are made to be random, and the chance of winning is slim to none. Because of this, once people win, they get hooked and continue to buy more tickets, spending more on tickets then they’ll ever win as a reward. Why do people continue to play the lottery even though the odds are against them?

There are two ways to play the lottery: scratchers and drawing. The former consists of purchasing a colorful card and scratching off numbers. If your card’s numbers coincide with a certain number given by the lottery company, then you win a price. The second way consists of choosing a series of six numbers (or having them chosen for you) at purchase. The lottery manager randomly picks a set of numbers, and if this series of numbers coincides with yours, then you win a price. 

This is logically very unlikely to happen. A magazine by the University of Colorado explains that “While different lotteries have different odds, the major multi-state lotteries are similarly unlikely to be won with a given ticket. The overall jackpot odds for a given Powerball drawing, for example, are one in 292,201,338” In comparison, the National Weather Review Service found that the lifetime odds of being hit by lightning are one in 15,300. “That means players are significantly more likely to be struck by lightning at some point than to win the lottery, even if they buy multiple tickets”, states the magazine.

People often overestimate low probability events. Van Boven, a professor of psychology at the University of Colorado, explains that people are really bad when it comes to thinking about low probabilities. “If something has a 1% likelihood of happening, people will often treat that as though it is actually a 5% likelihood.” This phenomenon is known as the behavioral response or decision weight. These factors combine to make people not only overestimate the odds of winning the lottery, but also overweight those low odds.

With these insane odds, why do people keep playing?

Ludovino Colón, tax consultant at EY, states that “The lottery is the tax paid by those who do not know their mathematical probabilities.

Playing gets people into a trap. The more they play, the more they become closer to the probability of winning. If a person wins once, then they will be hooked on the idea of winning again, significantly increasing the amount they play. Adam Osmond, who owned two Connecticut bodegas that sold lottery tickets, states that “The more you play, the more you’re going to win… Winning is what gets to people who play a lot. When you are down, you are always thinking that you gotta play more. Even if you get ahead and get ahead, you’re going to put it back.”

Morgan Housel, in his book The Psychology of Money, finds that“The lowest-income households in the U.S. on average spend $412 a year on lotto tickets, four times the amount of those in the highest income groups. Forty percent of Americans cannot come up with $400 in an emergency. Which is to say: Those buying $400 in lottery tickets are by and large the same people who say they couldn’t come up with $400 in an emergency.” 

This seems crazy, so why do people continue to buy lottery tickets?

Housel explains that economically challenged people have their own reasons for buying more lottery tickets than the rest of the population. 

If we put ourselves in their shoes, Housel explains that this is what their train of thought looks like:

“We live paycheck-to-paycheck and saving seems out of reach. Our prospects for much higher wages seem out of reach. We can’t afford nice vacations, new cars, health insurance, or homes in safe neighborhoods. We can’t put our kids through college without crippling debt. Much of the stuff you people who read finance books either have now, or have a good chance of getting, we don’t. Buying a lottery ticket is the only time in our lives we can hold a tangible dream of getting the good stuff that you already have and take for granted. We are paying for a dream, and you may not understand that because you are already living a dream. That’s why we buy more tickets than you do.”

This passage from the book is nothing but proof that the lottery preys on people’s desperation and struggles. It thrives on selling people fantasies that will only worsen their economic situation rather than better it. Not only does playing take advantage of vulnerable people, but they also gets them into a gambling trap, in which they convince themselves that the more they play, the more they earn. This is what the lottery tries to market: an opportunity to make money. This is a lie. It is a trap to get you to spend more money than you will ever earn. Thus, the lottery is a scam.

Sources:
Britannica. (n.d.). Lottery. Retrieved October 14, 2024, from https://www.britannica.com/topic/lottery

Van Boven, L. (2024, March 20). You’re very likely not going to win, so why play? CU Boulder. Retrieved October 14, 2024, from https://www.colorado.edu/asmagazine/2024/03/20/youre-very-likely-not-going-win-so-why-play

McGowan, M. (2016, January 13). The lottery is a tax on the poor. Vox. Retrieved October 14, 2024, from https://www.vox.com/identities/2016/1/13/10763268/lottery-poor-prey

Housel, M. (2020). The psychology of money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness. Harriman House.