By Nicole Mancebo 10-I

As you may know, the due date for the US elections which is right around the corner in November is getting closer and closer. On September 10th, 2024, the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump took place, and now Republicans and Democrats are more divided than ever. The point of the presidential debate is for candidates to display their charisma, their power, their confidence, their policies, and their ability to convince voters that they are the type of leader the country needs. Throughout the presidential run, candidates from both parties participate in a broadcasted debate, which we call the presidential debate. 

During these debates, each candidate will have to answer tough questions about their policies, as well as defend their stance on issues and policies against other candidates. It is the only real moment you see who the presidential candidate is, as they only have themselves to rely on, and present to the public just how well each politician can carry themselves in real-time.  Before the presidential debate, candidates hire a PR team to promote themselves to the public, usually through interviews or social media posts. During this promotion stage, most voters select which candidate or political party they will vote for. But do these debates really change the opinions of the voters? Or do they just choose to ignore every bad quality about their preferred candidate and turn a blind eye to the things the opposite competitor proposes?

To summarize it, research strongly suggests that no, presidential debates have little to no effect on voters. A study conducted by HBS (Harvard Business School) Associate Professor Vincent Pons and Assistant Professor Caroline Le Pennec-Caldichoury of the University of California at Berkeley evaluated pre- and post-election surveys in 9 countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Canada. The study includes research from 1952 (the year of the first televised presidential debate in the US), to the present day, from the year of the first televised presidential debate in the US -to 2017.  

According to their research, 80% of the 172,000 respondents admitted to watching the presidential debate. The team compared vote responses in the pre-election survey to actual votes reported in the post-election survey. Thanks to this, they found that about 87 percent of voters make up their minds more than two months before the election, oftentimes before both candidates can debate head-to-head. And those who do in fact change to a different candidate closer to the election don’t do it because of the TV debates. 

Another thing this study showed was that even younger and less educated voters, whether they watched the debate or heard about them from social media or from friends, don’t get persuaded at all by these debates. This comes to show just how little these debates truly do for the election results.

After the newest presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, CNN hosted a poll that suggested that while most viewers believe that Harris was the ‘winner’ and ‘outperformed’ Trump, many still oppose that opinion. However, the poll also stated that 82% of voters did not change or alter their presidential preferences or views, and only 4% reported changing their voting decision due to the debate. 

All of this shows undeniable evidence and belief that presidential votes do not in fact influence much of anyone’s perspective or vote because of the presidential debate. However, despite all of this, presidential debates are still important and very much needed in today’s society as they show what issues the candidate’s priorities are and can still help a small percentage of undecided voters form a preference.  

Sources:

DeStefano, C. (2020, October 6). What’s the point of a presidential debate? – Leadership inspirations. Leadership Inspirations. https://leadershipinspirations.com/whats-the-point-of-a-presidential-debate/

Do TV debates sway voters? (2019, November 21). HBS Working Knowledge. https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/do-tv-debates-sway-voters

Shamim, S. (2024, September 12). The Trump-Harris debate: Do presidential debates change voter preferences? Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/10/trump-harris-face-off-do-presidential-debates-change-voter-preferences

Did the presidential debate change your vote? (2024, September 10). PoliticsPA. https://www.politicspa.com/did-the-presidential-debate-change-your-vote/138953/